|  Ramzi Chamat

Lower interest rates by 2024 ?

The Swiss real estate market, at the dawn of spring 2024, finds itself at a crossroads, oscillating between anticipation of a drop in interest rates and vigilance in the face of economic uncertainties. Recent analyzes by the St. Gallen Cantonal Bank (SKGB) and financial market trends suggest notable changes that could influence both investors and consumers.




In the current economic context, the Swiss real estate market is preparing for a significant period of transformation, primarily due to forecasts of a decrease in mortgage interest rates in 2024. This development, anticipated by many professionals in the sector and supported by banks, brings a wave of optimism for the real estate market and Swiss households. This article examines in depth the potential impact of this rate decrease and explores why this trend is perceived so positively.



I. Current Interest Rate Trends


The "Investment View" of the Cantonal Bank of St. Gallen (SKGB) has recently highlighted a possible change in the interest rate trend in Switzerland. After a period of increase, a decrease is now envisaged, partly due to the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and global economic conditions. Swap interest rates, economic and geopolitical events, as well as international monetary policies, are all factors that influence this trend.



II. Impacts on the Real Estate Market


The anticipation of a decrease in interest rates has many positive implications for the Swiss real estate market:


1. Increased Borrowing Capacity for Households


Lower mortgage rates make borrowing more affordable, which can stimulate housing demand and, consequently, increase real estate prices.


2. Modification of the Reference Mortgage Rate


This decrease could also lead to a reduction in interest rates on variable-rate mortgage loans, alleviating the financial burden of existing borrowers.


3. Influence on Rents


Owners benefiting from reduced borrowing costs might be able to stabilize or reduce rents, which would be good news for tenants.


4. Implications for Real Estate Investors


Investors might find the real estate sector more attractive due to lower opportunity costs and increased housing demand.


5. Benefits for Owners and Tenants


Existing owners might see the value of their property increase, while tenants could benefit from more affordable rents.



III. Market Forecasts and Speculations for 2024


Financial markets anticipate a decrease in interest rates for 2024, based on current economic data and central bank policies. However, it is important to keep in mind that these predictions, although based on solid analyses, are not infallible and are subject to risks and alternative scenarios.



IV. Global Economic Influences


The Swiss economy, closely linked to the eurozone, is influenced by international monetary policies and global economic conditions. Inflation in major economies and decisions of the ECB and the Fed have repercussions on interest rates in Switzerland, thus indirectly affecting the real estate market. In addition, international investments play a crucial role, with foreign investors often considering Switzerland as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.



V. A Promising Future


The anticipated decrease in mortgage interest rates in 2024 is widely seen as a boon for the Swiss real estate market. It offers opportunities for buyers, investors, and tenants, contributing to a more balanced and favorable market dynamic. This positive trend is the result of a combination of factors, such as thoughtful monetary policies, an evolving global economy, and a banking sector attentive to market needs.





In conclusion, the Swiss real estate market is on the brink of a promising period. With forecasts of a decrease in mortgage interest rates in 2024, households and real estate professionals can expect a dynamic and growing market. This positive development is the fruit of an in-depth analysis of current trends and global economic influences, highlighting the importance of staying informed and adaptable in an ever-changing economic environment.

Geneva real estate market: Declining supply rates, rising prime rents and a promising outlook.

Geneva real estate market: Declining supply rates, rising prime rents and a promising outlook.

Fixed mortgage interest rates in Switzerland: A comprehensive analysis.

Fixed mortgage interest rates in Switzerland: A comprehensive analysis.